The Dutch government’s attempt to boost gambling tax revenue with major rate increases has fallen short of targets. The tax rate, which jumped from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025 and further to 37.8% in January 2026, was expected to generate an additional €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. However, the reality was starkly different. The changes yielded just €2 million extra in 2025, with 2026 projections around €57 million.
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Broader Impact on the Dutch Market
The underperformance in tax revenue isn’t solely due to the increased tax rate. And new deposit limits and advertising restrictions have contributed to a shrinkage in the taxable base, compounded by fading post-Euro 2024 revenues. While these factors have played a role, the impact on land-based gambling venues is difficult to downplay. Visits to casinos and gaming halls have dropped approximately 11% year over year. Several operators cite the tax hikes as a key reason for closures. Industry voices suggest this pattern is familiar—tax hikes often don’t deliver as expected. In fact, the Dutch example may serve as a cautionary tale for other jurisdictions contemplating similar measures.
Ireland’s New Licensing Regime
Turning to Ireland, fresh changes have arrived with the new licensing regime under the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI), effective as of July 1. Despite 89% of online betting being onshore, only 35% of the total market aligns with regulation since all iGaming operations remain offshore. Providers like Pragmatic Solutions are stepping up to assist operators with this transition, reflecting an industry eager to align with the new rules. Whether the Irish market will meet expectations as regulations evolve remains to be seen, but it’s a pivotal moment for aligning iGaming with local oversight.
Insights from iGB L!VE’s Africa Summit
Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin, fresh from the iGB L!VE event, highlighted the Africa Summit as a key moment for the industry’s future in the continent. The summit drew together regulators from Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya, along with the African Tax Administration Forum. Discussions centered on sustainable taxation, channelisation, and player protection, pushing forward plans for Africa Safer Gambling Week. Ed’s observations posed a critical question: can the industry maintain credibility in arguing against high taxes if certain markets manage to absorb or evade such costs? It’s a dilemma that continues to challenge operators worldwide. For those seeking deeper insights, the Right to the Source series offers broad data and discussions, shedding light on these market dynamics.
Looking Forward
The Dutch experience with tax hikes will likely influence future regulatory decisions. Meanwhile, all eyes are on Ireland’s regulatory journey, as it’s bound to shape market landscapes in the coming months. The ongoing dialogue sparked by the Africa Summit might also drive further collaborative efforts across jurisdictions.
Garry Sputnim is a seasoned journalist and storyteller with over a decade of experience in the trenches of global news. With a keen eye for uncovering stories that resonate, Alex has reported from over 30 countries, bringing light to untold narratives and the human faces behind the headlines. Specializing in investigative journalism, Garry has a knack for technology and social justice issues, weaving compelling narratives that bridge tech and humanity. Outside the newsroom, Garry is an avid rock climber and podcast host, exploring stories of resilience and innovation.
