The year 2026 hasn’t been a blockbuster for movies, yet that hasn’t deterred the bustling predictions market at Polymarket. With over $15 million in betting volume since opening last November, traders are deeply invested in forecasting the highest-grossing film of the year. So, which films are vying for the top spot, and what are their odds?
In This News
Current Box Office Leaders
As of now, “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” leads the pack with over $1 billion in global earnings. Released on April 1, this animated film features big Hollywood names like Jack Black and Chris Pratt. Despite its early success, it’s nowhere near last year’s frontrunner, “Ne Zha 2”, which amassed $2.26 billion. On Polymarket, its likelihood of ending as the top movie has plummeted from 46% to just 1% since March. Tough times for Mario fans. Meanwhile, the film struggles to retain its odds after receiving criticism for its storyline—an issue that likely influenced its sinking position. A ¢99.5 price for “No” suggests traders have little faith in its chances of reclaiming the top spot.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day — Front-runner by a Mile
Spider-Man: Brand New Day, starring Tom Holland, is generating a buzz that’s hard to ignore. And scheduled for release on July 29, its anticipation has shot the film to a 74% likelihood of topping the box office on Polymarket. Quite a leap from its initial 32% odds in March. The movie, part of the Marvel universe, teases the return of characters like Hulk, which has sent fan excitement through the roof. Columbia Pictures and Marvel Studios are no strangers to box office success. And spider-Man’s previous installment, “No Way Home,” raked in nearly two billion dollars in 2021, setting a high bar for its successors. Given this history, it’s no surprise that traders are betting heavily on another win for the franchise.
Challenges for Other Contenders
Despite a star-studded cast, including Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Hemsworth, “Avengers: Doomsday” faces an uphill battle. Its December 18 release date leaves it little time to accumulate earnings. Currently priced at 11¢ with an 11% chance on Polymarket, skepticism is growing. Early interest peaked at 35% in April, but the odds have steadily declined since then. Meanwhile, Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” which debuted in early July with a strong $250 million budget, remains an underdog. Despite grossing nearly $650 million—more than Nolan’s “Oppenheimer”—its Polymarket probability sits at a mere 3%. Surprising, given its rave reviews and IMAX innovation.
What Traders Are Considering
Numbers don’t lie, and neither do the dwindling odds of some fan favorites. “Toy Story 5,” an animated staple, enjoyed a hearty opening but hasn’t maintained trader confidence. Dropping from 33.1% to 2% on Polymarket, it’s clear Disney Pixar faces stiff competition. As for the outside possibilities, options are slim. But with seven other films like “The Hunger Games: Sunrise of the Reaping” and “Jumanji 3” lurking at 1% probabilities, there’s little belief in an upset.
What’s Next?
Traders eagerly await the year-end tally, with Box Office Mojo declaring the official highest-grossing film. We’re looking at a December 31 cutoff for data. In the improbable case of a tie, where domestic calendar gross is equal, the film first alphabetically will lead. Until then, all eyes are on the impending releases to see if Spidey can swing to the top.
Eri Gaitu leads the news desk at Best in Slot, tracking breaking developments across the gambling world in real time. From exclusive bonus offers and casino launches to licensing updates and regulatory shifts, Eri ensures readers are always first to know about the changes that matter to their gaming experience.
