The Dutch government is pushing for a near-total ban on online gambling advertising, aiming to curb what they see as a rising issue—especially among the youth. Announced in June, these measures, spearheaded by Claudia van Bruggen, the state secretary for legal protection, include ending sign-up bonuses, introducing a universal deposit limit, enhancing the CRUKS self-exclusion register, and cracking down harder on illegal operators. “It’s concerning that more people, especially the young, are gambling online and facing problems,” van Bruggen stated. She emphasized the need to reverse this trend.
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Regulatory Shifts and Prior Focus
The Dutch market’s initial focus when it opened in 2021 was on channelization—directing players towards licensed operators. But industry insiders, like Justin Franssen from the Amsterdam law firm Franssen Tolboom, assert that this focus has shifted. And “[Channelization] has quietly been abandoned,” Franssen explained, noting recent policy changes prioritize harm prevention over channelization. Previously, the goal was to channel players into a regulated market; now it seems, the emphasis is on shielding players from gambling harm altogether. The timing raises eyebrows. The regulator, Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), acknowledged that the market’s share of legal gross gaming revenue fell to about 49% by early 2025. Meanwhile, a high gaming tax of 37.8% and advertising restrictions have made it difficult for licensed operators to stay competitive.
Evidence and Expert Opinions
What evidence supports this advertising ban as a successful strategy? According to Franssen, none. “There’s no evidence it will succeed,” he argues, pointing out that the KSA itself has advised against a total ban. Still, the issue is significant: an estimated 70,000 ads appeared on Meta platforms in late 2025, with 95% from unlicensed operators. VNLOK, a trade association, took legal action against Meta, highlighting the prevalence of illegal ads. With an illegal gambling market potentially exceeding €1 billion annually, Franssen warns that banning licensed operator ads only hands the stage to illegal operators. Denmark and Italy’s experiences echo these concerns. Denmark opted for stringent restrictions rather than a complete ban, yet still saw unlicensed market growth. Similarly, Italy’s near-total ban since 2018 has seen illegal gambling thrive, now estimated to be worth €22 billion, without effectively boosting the channelization to the licensed market.
Policy Effectiveness and Concerns
The Dutch have previously seen success with specific, targeted measures. Under former state secretary Franc Weerwind, deposit limits were introduced, resulting in reduced average monthly losses. These measures showed a decline in players exceeding their monthly limits. Still, franssen appreciates the ambition behind harm prevention but cautions that excessive restrictions could backfire, driving more players to the black market. Enforcement remains the government’s proposed solution, although Franssen is skeptical. “The black market is like quicksilver—it always finds a way around enforcement,” he says. Primary legislation for a total ban is required, which could take years. However, during this time, the trends—like the growing black market and stagnant channelization rates—may only worsen.
Future Implications
As discussions persist, industry experts like Mancini and Rønde have voiced critical concerns over the potential impact of these proposals. Rønde warns that the Dutch market might not remain viable under current conditions. “When surveys show the channelization rate is down to 50%, the market is already not working,” he notes. The government’s efforts to silence licensed market advertisements might inadvertently turn the conversation towards unregulated spaces where monitoring is limited. With a legislative process that could extend over two years, the Dutch experiment may evolve in unexpected ways.
Garry Sputnim is a seasoned journalist and storyteller with over a decade of experience in the trenches of global news. With a keen eye for uncovering stories that resonate, Alex has reported from over 30 countries, bringing light to untold narratives and the human faces behind the headlines. Specializing in investigative journalism, Garry has a knack for technology and social justice issues, weaving compelling narratives that bridge tech and humanity. Outside the newsroom, Garry is an avid rock climber and podcast host, exploring stories of resilience and innovation.
