New York Assemblyman Clyde Vanel has introduced Assembly Bill 9251, targeting the regulation of prediction markets. The bill, titled the Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events Act (ORACLE), aims to curtail certain prediction contracts which lawmakers argue fall outside acceptable public policy. The proposal reflects growing concerns from both regulators and the gambling industry about platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket that have been thriving in a legal gray area.
In recent years, these platforms have seen significant growth, particularly during high-profile political events. The recent New York City mayoral race alone reportedly attracted billions of dollars in wagers, prompting regulators to scrutinize these markets more closely. Vanel explains that the bill seeks to prevent certain types of events from being exploited on these platforms, ensuring they comply with the same regulations as traditional betting activities in New York State.
The bill proposes to restrict New Yorkers from engaging with prediction markets associated with “catastrophic events, politics, deaths, securities, and athletic events.” It also distinguishes between betting on single sports games, which it aims to prohibit, and betting on entire tournaments, which would remain permissible. Moreover, the ORACLE Act introduces consumer protection measures, requiring users to be at least 21, offering self-exclusion tools, and prominently displaying HOPE NY hotline information for problem gambling.
Platforms would be compelled to clarify how outcomes are determined and prohibited from using undisclosed data to settle markets. Advertising would face stricter controls, specifically banning promotions targeting individuals under 21, the use of terms like “risk-free,” and push notifications unrelated to user interests. Additionally, the bill seeks to ban credit card deposits and gift cards linked to prediction markets.
Vanel emphasizes that these platforms must adhere to the same regulations and safeguards as traditional betting platforms, underscoring the need for a level playing field in the gambling industry. However, the legislative process means the bill won’t be discussed until the new session starts on January 7, 2026, as New York’s 2025 legislative session has already concluded.
As some states like Massachusetts have already taken legal action against prediction markets, New York’s approach signals a growing trend of scrutiny and regulation in this sector. Advocates of prediction markets argue that they serve as valuable tools for gauging public sentiment and providing insights into future events. They contend that, rather than stifling innovation, states should consider ways to integrate these platforms into existing regulatory frameworks in a manner that ensures consumer protection without hampering their potential benefits.
Critics, on the other hand, argue that prediction markets often resemble traditional gambling and can lead to financial harm if not properly regulated. They assert that the speculative nature of these markets can encourage reckless behavior, particularly among younger users. The concerns about their similarities to gambling have fueled calls for tighter regulations to protect vulnerable populations.
Within the context of the wider market, the debate over prediction markets taps into broader discussions about the evolving landscape of online gambling and financial speculation. As digital platforms continue to innovate and blur the lines between betting and investing, regulators face the challenge of crafting policies that address the complexities of these emerging markets.
The question of how to regulate prediction markets remains contentious. While Vanel’s bill represents a decisive step towards greater oversight, it also highlights the need for ongoing dialogue between lawmakers, industry stakeholders, and consumers. Balancing innovation with regulation will be key to ensuring that prediction markets can operate safely and fairly, providing both economic opportunities and protections for participants.
As the conversation unfolds, it will be crucial for stakeholders on all sides to engage collaboratively and thoughtfully. Finding a regulatory approach that acknowledges the unique characteristics of prediction markets while safeguarding public interests could position New York as a leader in this rapidly evolving field. Ultimately, the outcome of this legislative effort may set a precedent for how other states handle the challenges posed by prediction markets, influencing the future trajectory of this burgeoning industry.
David Harrison stands tall in gambling journalism, marrying his firsthand casino experiences with a deep understanding of betting psychology. His articles transform complex gambling jargon into engaging tales of strategy and chance, making the world of betting accessible and enjoyable. David’s knack for narrative extends beyond print, making him a sought-after speaker on gambling trends and future bets. In the realm of gambling, David is both a scholar and a storyteller, captivating readers and listeners alike.
