July saw an average daily volume of $1.91 billion across U.S. prediction markets, edging closer to the $2 billion mark, as per Jefferies. The uptick was largely driven by the FIFA World Cup, but non-sports prediction categories also witnessed growth.
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Impact of the World Cup
The World Cup played a major role in boosting prediction market activity. As the tournament moved into its knockout stages, turnover in binary prediction markets increased by 9% from the previous month. The departure of the U.S. team in the Round of 16 did little to stymie interest — a positive sign for the strength of the market. Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon noted that newer platforms attracted more volume last month. Still, “Other platforms that we track had $161 million in average daily volume (ADV), a decline of 6% month-on-month but a massive increase of about 26,588% year-on-year,” Fannon explained. Notably, Rothera, launched in June through a collaboration between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, reported $70 million total ADV, accounting for 3.7% of the industry’s ADV. However, weekly figures showed volatility, peaking at $137 million by June’s end and falling to $8 million by the end of July after World Cup contracts ended.
Growth Beyond Sports Predictions
It’s not just sports predictability that’s seeing a surge. And the balance between sports and non-sports activities on prediction markets may have been skewed by the World Cup, yet the increase in non-sports turnover can’t be ignored. Still, in July, sports ADV rose by 12% to $1.333 billion, while non-sports grew by 5% to $424 million, according to Fannon. The sports segment took 76% of total ADV in July, up from 67% in June. Meanwhile, open interest (OI) showed sports with a 73% share, slightly down from the previous month. As the 2026 midterm elections approach, anticipation is that non-sports volume will continue to rise. It’s hard to overstate the World Cup’s impact, though. Fannon pointed out, “During June and July, prediction markets experienced a major volume increase from the 2026 FIFA Soccer World Cup, which generated an unprecedented $20 billion in volume.”
Deal-making and Partnerships Heat Up
Beyond sheer volumes, July was bustling with activity in the prediction markets sector, particularly in terms of partnerships and acquisitions. Fanatics made headlines by acquiring a regulated exchange and clearinghouse from BGC Group, a strategic move to internalize their exchange operations. Additionally, there’s chatter about a potential partnership between Crypto.com and Robinhood, though it remains unconfirmed. The month ended on a high note with IG Group’s announcement of a $1.3 billion acquisition of Underdog, a firm quickly ascending in the U.S. prediction market market.
Looking Ahead
With the 2026 midterms on the horizon, non-sports categories are expected to see further growth. The World Cup’s impact, however, won’t be easily matched anytime soon. The board is scheduled to review market conditions later this year, possibly in Q4.
Eri Gaitu leads the news desk at Best in Slot, tracking breaking developments across the gambling world in real time. From exclusive bonus offers and casino launches to licensing updates and regulatory shifts, Eri ensures readers are always first to know about the changes that matter to their gaming experience.
