Shares of Full House Resorts (NASDAQ: FLL) have plummeted 43% over the past year, yet analysts see a potential rebound if the company successfully maneuvers its key developments in Colorado and Illinois. Texas Capital analyst David Bain recently issued a “buy” rating with a price target of $6, suggesting that the stock could more than double from its current $2.50 price. The pivotal factor? Full House’s permanent American Place Casino in Waukegan.
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American Place Casino: A key Development
The American Place project has been a long time in the making, marked by delays due to legal battles with a tribal competitor. After three years of operating a temporary casino, Full House broke ground on the permanent site last month. The new venue is slated to include 900 slot machines, 40 table games, a poker room, and a sportsbook. Still, located near Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, it’s not just a gaming space—it’s a strategic location that could enhance Full House’s EBITDA, per Bain’s analysis. Bain’s optimism hinges on two critical milestones: securing financing and meeting EBITDA targets. If the permanent American Place can hit these benchmarks, Bain believes Full House’s 2029 EBITDA may soar 200% higher than 2024 levels. But there’s a catch—the financing must be secured, or the temporary casino might be forced to close by August 2027.
Interest Rates: A Potential Barrier
Full House’s financial outlook isn’t without its hurdles. Bain reminds us that the company is saddled with over $450 million in long-term debt—roughly five times its market capitalization—at an 8.25% interest rate. This means that any relief from the Federal Reserve in the form of rate cuts could be a boon. However, industry whispers suggest that the Fed’s room to maneuver is limited this year. The debt load not only adds a layer of risk but also underscores the importance of operational success at their key properties. But a misstep in Illinois could have ripple effects, affecting Full House’s broader strategy.
Don’t Overlook Colorado
Beyond Illinois, Full House’s success also hinges on its Chamonix Casino Hotel in Cripple Creek, Colorado. Opened in late 2023, this is the largest investment the company has made in the Cripple Creek area, bringing a slice of luxury inspired by the French Alps to the region. Bain points out that this property is equally vital to Full House’s long-term growth. There’s a gamble here too. The Chamonix must meet intermediate-term expectations to push the stock toward Bain’s price target. Failure to perform could derail investor enthusiasm—though it’s certainly a property with potential, given it’s among the largest in that market.
Future Considerations
So what’s next for Full House? The coming months will be crucial. Full House’s future largely depends on hitting its financial targets and securing the necessary project financing. As such dates loom, the market will be watching closely to see how this saga unfolds. With a mix of high stakes and high potential, Full House’s journey is far from over. Investors and analysts alike will need to keep their eyes peeled for the company’s next moves as these dates approach.
Eri Gaitu leads the news desk at Best in Slot, tracking breaking developments across the gambling world in real time. From exclusive bonus offers and casino launches to licensing updates and regulatory shifts, Eri ensures readers are always first to know about the changes that matter to their gaming experience.
