California tribal leaders are setting their sights on 2028 for a sports betting ballot measure, eager to capitalize on the rise of prediction markets. On Wednesday’s “New Normal” podcast, James Siva, Chair of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association, confirmed that tribes still aim to present an online sports betting proposal to voters in 2028. This comes six years after Californians rejected similar measures in 2022. Back then, tribal governments supported Proposition 26 for retail sports betting at tribal casinos, while major brands like DraftKings and FanDuel pushed for Proposition 27 to legalize online wagering.
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Tribes Refine Strategies Post-2022
Following the 2022 setback, California tribes have been polling voters, most recently in June, to shape a new campaign. Siva emphasized the importance of data-driven approaches, pointing out that 83% of voters rejected Proposition 27. And “We take pride in having opposed the corporate bill,” Siva noted. Tribes plan to highlight their proven track record in running gaming facilities as a cornerstone of their future initiative. “We’ve established trust with our regulated gaming operations,” Siva added. “Our history of keeping promises is a strong foundation.”
Impact of Prediction Markets
The rise of federally regulated prediction markets is reshaping narratives for California tribes. Siva mentioned that about 60% of Californians mistakenly believe online sports betting is already legal. This misunderstanding could influence the tribes’ messaging. “Federally regulated prediction markets have shifted public perception,” he explained. Siva argued that a tribal-regulated sports betting market would offer clearer consumer protections and economic benefits—areas where prediction markets fall short.
Market Competition and Challenges
Siva suggested that legal sports betting in California could diminish prediction market activity. California and Texas reportedly account for around 60% of Kalshi’s user base. “Regulated markets would definitely draw users away from prediction markets,” Siva said. He also mentioned ongoing tribal efforts to challenge sports event contracts legally and politically. “2028 is crucial,” he stated. “That’s when we can start making a major impact.”
The tribes’ proposal remains one of the most closely scrutinized potential expansions in U.S. gaming. The California ballot measure could redefine the market market, should it gain approval. The next major step—finalizing plans and preparing for the 2028 vote.
Marcus Chen brings a quantitative approach to poker strategy and sports betting analysis. With a background in data analytics and over eight years covering professional poker circuits, his articles combine statistical insights with practical advice for serious players looking to sharpen their edge at the table.
