In the third quarter, Sweden’s horse racing betting operator ATG reported a modest improvement in the country’s online gambling channelisation rate. According to ATG’s estimates, the rate rose to between 74 and 85 percent, a slight increase from 70 to 82 percent during the same period last year. This range aligns with Spelinspektionen’s prediction of an 85 percent channelisation rate for 2024. Nevertheless, these figures fall short of the government’s original target of 90 percent, a goal set when Sweden initiated regulated online gambling in 2019.
The data indicates a potential decline, considering Spelinspektionen’s earlier estimate of 86 percent in 2023. Historically, ATG has reported lower channelisation figures compared to official estimates, prompting discussions about whether the target rate needs reevaluation.
Interestingly, ATG noted a continuous decrease in traffic to unlicensed gambling websites since the first quarter of 2024. Visits dropped from 3.4 percent to 2.3 percent. Among the most frequented unlicensed sites, Infiniza Limited’s Unlimitcasino.co led with 174,391 visits in Q3, followed by Luckyjungle.com with 144,992 visits, and Refuelcasino.com with 139,097 visits.
ATG highlighted that out of the 20 most-visited unlicensed websites, 16 featured games from major content providers and eight facilitated direct transactions from Swedish bank accounts through BankID, using Krofort’s payment services. Notably, three of these sites have already been flagged on Spelinspektionen’s blacklist.
When dissected, ATG’s channelisation estimates showed a significant divergence between different gambling verticals: online casinos were at 79 percent while sports betting reached 85 percent. These calculations were premised on the belief that average revenue per visit is at least tenfold higher for unlicensed operators.
In a move to further curb unregulated gambling, ATG’s CEO, Hasse Lord Skarplöth, reiterated his call for a complete ban on gambling bonuses in Sweden. He viewed the rise in channelisation as encouraging but maintained that bonus offers posed a risk. “I have long advocated a total bonus ban,” he stated. “I am often met with the argument that it would drive players to the unlicensed market where bonuses flow. But if we succeed in strangling unlicensed gaming further, that protest will lose its force.”
ATG’s appeal for a bonus ban, which was also supported by state-controlled Svenska Spel in a recent joint op-ed, has faced criticism from commercial gambling operators. They argue that such a ban would disproportionately advantage ATG and Svenska Spel. The industry trade body, BOS, contends that these companies continue to benefit from the brand recognition they garnered during their monopoly era prior to the 2019 liberalization of online gambling in Sweden. As a result, they argue that ATG and Svenska Spel have less need for promotional strategies that other operators rely on.
The debate centers on the balance between regulating the market to prevent unlicensed activities while ensuring that competitive practices remain fair for all operators. The discussion on bonus restrictions adds another layer to Sweden’s ongoing effort to refine its regulatory framework, aiming to achieve high channelisation while safeguarding consumer interests and promoting a healthy gambling environment.
The broader context of Sweden’s regulated gambling market reveals a steady but challenging path toward achieving optimal channelisation. The government’s ambitious 90 percent target remains elusive, yet incremental improvements suggest progress. The necessity for regulatory adjustments and industry cooperation is evident as stakeholders navigate the complexities of a dynamic market landscape.
Ultimately, the dialogue between regulatory authorities and industry players will shape the future of Sweden’s gambling sector. Finding a middle ground that curtails unlicensed activities without stifling competition will be crucial in attaining the long-term objectives of channelisation, player protection, and market integrity. As Sweden approaches the end of another fiscal year, these discussions will likely intensify, setting the stage for potential changes in 2025 and beyond.
