As the World Cup’s lineup moves into the final 16, there’s no doubt that the tournament is delivering a solid boost to sportsbooks’ betting handle. Deutsche Bank recently revised its World Cup betting handle estimates, though the overall profit picture remains ambiguous.
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New York’s Metrics Drive Estimates Upward
According to Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella, using New York’s betting data as a benchmark, the World Cup’s handle estimate for the past two weeks has increased to between $3.4 billion and $3.8 billion. This uptick reflects activity over 61 of the tournament’s 104 matches. While the volume shows promise for sportsbooks, the hold rate — the actual profit margin they retain — tells a more nuanced story. “Hold results have been mixed,” Pizzella remarked, emphasizing that the possible upside from the World Cup’s increased volume is tempered by fluctuating hold percentages. For instance, New York reported a 9.2% hold for the week ending June 21, rising to a strong 12.1% the following week, averaging a two-week hold of 10.6%.
Impact on Sportsbook Stocks
Despite the unpredictability of the hold results, the World Cup is still lending a hand to sports betting stocks. And in the past month, Flutter Entertainment and DraftKings have seen their shares climb 4.63% and 1.85%, respectively. Analysts predict further gains if betting activity ramps up during the knockout stages, as anticipated. Increased U.S. team participation is another potential catalyst, with Pizzella noting that American advancement “could materially increase betting demand.” Popular teams like Brazil, England, and Mexico carry additional weight, with Mexico’s fan base in the U.S. adding significance despite the team’s historical round of 16 barrier. However, if these high-profile teams falter early, it could spell trouble for related stocks. Flutter, in particular, stands to gain if Brazil and England make deep runs, given its major presence in both Europe and Latin America.
World Cup Fuels Prediction Markets
The World Cup’s influence extends beyond traditional sportsbooks, boosting activity in prediction markets. Kalshi, for example, recorded two of its highest weekly volumes during the tournament’s group play stage. Similarly, platforms like DraftKings Predictions and Robinhood are experiencing surging turnover. This increase is particularly noteworthy given the competition from other sports events, underscoring the World Cup’s unique place in global gambling.
What’s Next?
As the World Cup progresses, betting activity is set to rise, especially with the knockout stages on the horizon. Still, whether this translates into long-term gains for sportsbook operators and their investors depends largely on how effectively they use the heightened interest. The next major test for these operators will be maintaining momentum into the final stages of the tournament.
Eri Gaitu leads the news desk at Best in Slot, tracking breaking developments across the gambling world in real time. From exclusive bonus offers and casino launches to licensing updates and regulatory shifts, Eri ensures readers are always first to know about the changes that matter to their gaming experience.
