A recent survey by POLITICO and Public First indicates that Americans show a marked preference for prediction markets linked to sports over those tied to elections. The divide in public opinion becomes even more pronounced as the industry seeks expansion.
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Preference for Legalized Sports Contracts
Conducted by UK-based Public First, the poll found that 53% of respondents favor legalizing sports event contracts, while only 23% oppose them. Contrastingly, markets related to election outcomes encountered notable resistance: 44% believe they should be illegal, while just 30% support their legalization. The industry isn’t blind to these findings, as prediction market platforms aim to branch out from sports to encompass politics and public policy.
Event Type Influences Support
Public acceptance varies with the type of event, the survey reveals. And for instance, weather-related prediction markets gained support from 46% of participants, while predictions for award shows saw similar backing. However, politics proves to be a contentious issue. Markets connected to presidential pardons face opposition comparable to election betting, with 43% against their legality. Additionally, contracts on public figures’ comments see more opposition than support. The most sensitive topics like war outcomes and acts of terrorism draw the strongest opposition, showing a cautious public stance on these matters.
Mixed Sentiment and Increasing Financial Activity
While the survey reveals a fragmented public stance on prediction markets, financial activity tells a different story. POLITICO notes that nearly $700 million has already traded on markets for the 2028 US presidential elections. Polymarket’s international platform recorded over $3.6 billion in trading volume during the 2024 election cycle. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts forecast that by 2030, political and public policy markets might constitute over a quarter of total prediction market trading, potentially growing into a $266 billion segment annually.
Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies
This burgeoning interest hasn’t gone unnoticed by regulators. Over 25 prediction market-related bills have been introduced in the US this year. These proposals range from outright bans on election contracts to restrictions on government officials’ participation. Still, minnesota, for instance, has enacted a broad ban on several event contracts, while Tennessee has implemented penalties for manipulation and insider trading activities. This isn’t the first time regulators have cast a wary eye on the industry. The survey underscores that while sports and entertainment prediction markets seem to be gaining traction, political applications remain much more complex and contentious. Given the current state of affairs, it’s clear that navigating this market will require delicate balance. The board is set to review these regulatory proposals in the coming months, with decisions expected to shape the industry’s future trajectory.
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